A long time ago I used to think people writing fiction had at least a small clue about things. Not all the cop and murder and spy things. Guys like Robert Heinlein, Isaac Asimov and Aurthur Clarke had actual science in their science fiction. I figured most of the little facts around the characters were accurate.
John D. MacDonald's character, Travis McGee, always asked for the aisle seat on a bulkhead row because that seat row had more leg room. I figured things like that were probably accurate just as I knew from research that the basic scientific theory in many of the books I read was accurate.
I joined the army at 17 and one day after maybe 20,000 air miles I remembered John D.MacDonald's advice about seating. I'm a big guy. I tried it out. Some of you are laughing already because you know the best seat is in an exit row. Worst seat for a tall guy ever is a bulkhead seat.
Most people do not cram things under their seats. That means guys like me with long legs can actually shove them far under the seat in front of us so a bulk head aisle would suck. I figured the seat had to be pretty far back to give me more leg room but I had never thought about it walking past the bulkhead seating before so I tried it out on a whim.
There are thousands of people who understand English grammar and spelling well enough to make a living at writing. Some of those create great characters and really capture the reader in a story. People in the United States have focused for so long on the spelling and grammar necessary for creative writing that often they ignore the communication as they evaluate the quality of the prose.
Ah, the quality of the English Prose. A shit dipped rose by any other name would still stink.
The idiots in the English speaking western nations have destroyed themselves with their insistence on English and their focusing on spelling, grammar and prose instead of accuracy.
Scientists in non-English speaking nations often communicate in English. Kind of sucks, but, that focus on English communication in Science is a beautiful thing except for people who speak English.
Most people whose first language is anything else but English focus on understanding what the communication is about. Way too many people whose first language is English focus on the spelling and the grammar of the communication. Misuse of punctuation destroys the focus of the communication for the English speaker while the non-English speaker never even notices it.
There is one and only one goal for language. Communication. If language fails to achieve this goal the language is a failure.
What is really hilarious is that while English is failing as a communication tool for the English speaking population it is succeeding for non-English people who work hard at understanding the focus of the communication.
In other words, English is a failed language among English speakers and a successful language among non_English speakers. That is hilarious!
Ignorant creative writers whose skills in English spelling and grammar achieve great honors in the United States while incredibly intelligent people who are illiterate are ignored.
Thousands of years ago people in the west began creating a series of cultural skill sets that allowed people to identify others that were in their cultural group. In ancient Rome people of the aristocracy had particular ways of doing things. Plebeians had a different way of doing things. As people rose in rank and the empire grew it became necessary to identify people who had never been in contact as belonging to a specific cultural group such as Roman military officers or Roman civil authorities. There were letters and seals of course as well as secret methods of communications, handshakes and signs and mannerisms.
Today those cultural mannerisms are found all over the United States in handshakes and gang-signs. People use the same methods to identify themselves today that they used thousands of years ago.
Watching someone eat soup could tell you a lot about their position in society. There are many droll comments about bourgeoisie mannerisms. These comments are groundless because they ignore the underlying necessity of the culturally identifying mannerisms which simple organizations such as street gangs have rediscovered. In some cases improperly using specific cultural mannerisms such as gang-signs can get a person killed.
Grammar and spelling are cultural mannerisms.
At one time in history the way a person spelled a word in the English language identified the university that person had attended. Today spelling and grammar are used to identify education by the intelligent and intelligence by the ignorant..
Of course English spelling and grammar do not identify education as a whole, they simply identify people who are educated in English spelling and grammar.
Among the ignorant and bigoted in the western English speaking cultures education in English spelling and grammar are identified with intelligence. This is not an opinion, this is a fact. Bigots make individual determinations about people based on stereotypes. The idea that intelligence can be determined by the quality of written communication is an inaccurate stereotype.
All people are self educated and they all educate themselves in the areas they want to become experts in. If a person is an expert industrial maintenance person with an incredible level of mechanical systems intelligence they may never feel English grammar and spelling or even reading and writing is important. Especially if they are Chinese, but even if they are from the States.
Some people feel math is an unimportant subject.
The other day a clerk in a hardware store game me the wrong change and when I pointed it out she was confused by the math, two quarters and two dimes equals 70 cents, not 80 cents. She couldn't do it, raised on charge cards, debit cards her simple addition skills were absent. She never needed to develop them past the skills necessary to pass the required classes in high school.
The Verizon Business unit sucks at math too. http://verizonmath.blogspot.com/2006/12/verizon-doesnt-know-dollars-from-cents.html
The Verizon issue identifies a specific math problem witch (sic :-) is based on written miscommunication.
(yes, I know sic is only properly used in a quote. If you don't get that inference I can't help you)
When I was young I didn't understand the sociological importance of using the correct eating utensil. I thought it was stupid and actually I still do. I would often ignore the bourgeois cultural mannerisms. As I became older I realized what ignorant bigots most people were and how badly they treat people who ignore or are ignorant of what they believe are important cultural mannerisms no matter how bourgeois I felt those cultural mannerisms were.
People are often stereotyped based on their acceptance and usage of bourgeois mannerisms.
Ignorant Bigots use bourgeois mannerisms to "prove their own superiority".
Today ignorant bigots use English spelling and grammar as a cultural mannerism to "identify superiority in communication"
Non-English speakers focus on the essence of the communication
The English speaking ignorant bigot focuses on the quality of the prose learning fascinating things like the way community organizers "bring people together" using methods devised by Saul Alinsky such as his "Rules for Radicals". (bet some moron is already criticizing the grammar and punctuation there :-)
It is hilarious to me that the our nation, based on insistence by ignorant bigoted "elitists" that proper English spelling and grammar identify intelligence, is ignoring incredibly important communications and refusing to educate themselves.
Now that is beyond ignorant, it is pure stupidity.
Sunday, September 04, 2011
Friday, September 02, 2011
Approval
This morning my wife and I were talking about something and she asked why someone would do something and I said “approval”.
It sounds like a simple issue, but, it isn't really. It is an extremely complex issue that deals with bigotry and stereotypes.
I can argue against homosexuality from dozens of different viewpoints and I can argue for homosexuality from only a single viewpoint. God invented choice. God did not force everyone to adopt God's rules, God invented choice and he gave everyone the ability to choose.
In Judaism one of the 615 Mizvot is to kill homosexuals. Christ's crucifixion finished the original or Old Testament and started the New Testament. Christ reduced the number of rules people had to live by because people were twisting the God's rules to suit themselves. Even today people insist on obeying some of the 615 Mizvot without obeying all of them. Even Jews do not obey the Mizvot, the Temple is destroyed and many of the commandments of the Mizvot require the Temple. Do the Jewish people have a responsibility to rebuild the Temple to obey the Mizvot?
I have friends who are gay. I have news for anyone who does not like the fact that I make friends with people who do things I don't approve of. I guarantee that everyone in the world does things I don't approve of. I guarantee that I have done, am doing and will do something that people will not approve of.
That is a big deal in a democracy where the media insists that the “majority approve”, or at least their version of the “majority” approve.
Often people from the United States go places and dis-approve of local customs. This is the “Ugly American” complex that has encouraged hatred and terrorism.
I believe this ridiculous idea that the individual citizen of the States has that their approval is important has been created by democracy and entertainment.
Politicians in a democracy work hard to establish a “majority approval” just as entertainment does looking for the high Nielsen ratings. I believe this creates a disproportionate belief about individual approval.
On top of that the United States uses guns to enforce their approval. If people do things they don't approve of the United States threatens violence and offers to pay people to behave in a way that people in the United States approves of.
Pretty sick stuff.
I find that a lot of people get really angry with me because I have ideas that they don't approve of. “God is pro-choice, God invented choice” for example. “Homosexuality is against God's rules”. Ideas like that piss off the far left bigots and the far right bigots equally. I read books that piss of bigots of all religions, political persuasion and ideologies. Often these bigots hate me because I am not seeking out their approval and more than anything this pisses them off.
I feel sorry for Oprah Winfrey. Oprah built her career around being approved of. Look at what happened with her book club. She started a book club recommending books and encouraging reading. A bunch of people who felt their approval was important dis-approved and ridiculed the Oprah Winfrey Book Club and everything she was doing with it. Oprah shut down the book club and then started it back up again, a politically wishy-washy thing to do based on seeking approval.
I'm never going to be a nationally syndicated columnist because I don't seek approval. I used to think things like that were important. Now I could care less. I find that the people who hang out with me these days are people who don't expect me to approve of their lives and don't care if I dis-approve of some of their choices.
I am not interested in people trying to enforce their influence on my life. I'm not interested in people who take their own approval so seriously that they can't take a sarcastic response when their ideas or comments are ridiculous.
I think people who base their self image on “being right” are seeking approval, especially when they react badly when you disagree with them.
Everyone makes ridiculous comments. Everyone has untenable positions. People who think they are “one-upping” someone by proving a position incorrect are idiots. People who freak out when their positions is successfully challenged are idiots.
No one is going to convince me that God approves of homosexuality. No one is going to convince me that I have to approve of everything any one I call a friend does or believes. No friend of mine is going to insist that I approve of their every choice or that they approve of every choice I make.
Just like Christ, I don't insist that anyone adopt my ideas, even when they are obviously correct and I can prove them mathematically. Believe me I have had engineering and manufacturing ideas that people have called crazy that I have proved mathematically and people have rejected.
It's obvious to me that God created choice and intended for people to make their own choices. I don't tell people they are full of crap when they reject something so obvious. I don't tell people they are stupid, I don't have to. It's obvious that I think they are stupid when they reject simple, logic truisms.
Anyone looking for me to differ to their “superiority” in anything is an idiot. Anyone looking at me to be “superior” is an idiot.
The big difference is I don't expect anyone to care if I think they are stupid. I know my approval is not necessary for their lives and I know their approval is not necessary for my life.
I also realize that there are people who based their entire lives on the idea that people have to approve of each other. That is crap. I believe that people have to love each other. Love has to transcend approval.
In the United States approval transcends love.
I can love people I think are stupid. I can love people I think are doing stupid things. I can love people who believe things I think are stupid.
I don't need to approve of everything or anything someone does to love them. I don't need to think anything someone does is “smart” to love them. I don't need to agree with anyone to love them.
If someone is looking at me to “prove” I love them they will be disappointed. I don't expect anyone to prove that I love them and I don't expect to have anyone prove they love me.
When people quit expecting their approval to matter to anyone else this world will be a much better place.
It sounds like a simple issue, but, it isn't really. It is an extremely complex issue that deals with bigotry and stereotypes.
I can argue against homosexuality from dozens of different viewpoints and I can argue for homosexuality from only a single viewpoint. God invented choice. God did not force everyone to adopt God's rules, God invented choice and he gave everyone the ability to choose.
In Judaism one of the 615 Mizvot is to kill homosexuals. Christ's crucifixion finished the original or Old Testament and started the New Testament. Christ reduced the number of rules people had to live by because people were twisting the God's rules to suit themselves. Even today people insist on obeying some of the 615 Mizvot without obeying all of them. Even Jews do not obey the Mizvot, the Temple is destroyed and many of the commandments of the Mizvot require the Temple. Do the Jewish people have a responsibility to rebuild the Temple to obey the Mizvot?
I have friends who are gay. I have news for anyone who does not like the fact that I make friends with people who do things I don't approve of. I guarantee that everyone in the world does things I don't approve of. I guarantee that I have done, am doing and will do something that people will not approve of.
That is a big deal in a democracy where the media insists that the “majority approve”, or at least their version of the “majority” approve.
Often people from the United States go places and dis-approve of local customs. This is the “Ugly American” complex that has encouraged hatred and terrorism.
I believe this ridiculous idea that the individual citizen of the States has that their approval is important has been created by democracy and entertainment.
Politicians in a democracy work hard to establish a “majority approval” just as entertainment does looking for the high Nielsen ratings. I believe this creates a disproportionate belief about individual approval.
On top of that the United States uses guns to enforce their approval. If people do things they don't approve of the United States threatens violence and offers to pay people to behave in a way that people in the United States approves of.
Pretty sick stuff.
I find that a lot of people get really angry with me because I have ideas that they don't approve of. “God is pro-choice, God invented choice” for example. “Homosexuality is against God's rules”. Ideas like that piss off the far left bigots and the far right bigots equally. I read books that piss of bigots of all religions, political persuasion and ideologies. Often these bigots hate me because I am not seeking out their approval and more than anything this pisses them off.
I feel sorry for Oprah Winfrey. Oprah built her career around being approved of. Look at what happened with her book club. She started a book club recommending books and encouraging reading. A bunch of people who felt their approval was important dis-approved and ridiculed the Oprah Winfrey Book Club and everything she was doing with it. Oprah shut down the book club and then started it back up again, a politically wishy-washy thing to do based on seeking approval.
I'm never going to be a nationally syndicated columnist because I don't seek approval. I used to think things like that were important. Now I could care less. I find that the people who hang out with me these days are people who don't expect me to approve of their lives and don't care if I dis-approve of some of their choices.
I am not interested in people trying to enforce their influence on my life. I'm not interested in people who take their own approval so seriously that they can't take a sarcastic response when their ideas or comments are ridiculous.
I think people who base their self image on “being right” are seeking approval, especially when they react badly when you disagree with them.
Everyone makes ridiculous comments. Everyone has untenable positions. People who think they are “one-upping” someone by proving a position incorrect are idiots. People who freak out when their positions is successfully challenged are idiots.
No one is going to convince me that God approves of homosexuality. No one is going to convince me that I have to approve of everything any one I call a friend does or believes. No friend of mine is going to insist that I approve of their every choice or that they approve of every choice I make.
Just like Christ, I don't insist that anyone adopt my ideas, even when they are obviously correct and I can prove them mathematically. Believe me I have had engineering and manufacturing ideas that people have called crazy that I have proved mathematically and people have rejected.
It's obvious to me that God created choice and intended for people to make their own choices. I don't tell people they are full of crap when they reject something so obvious. I don't tell people they are stupid, I don't have to. It's obvious that I think they are stupid when they reject simple, logic truisms.
Anyone looking for me to differ to their “superiority” in anything is an idiot. Anyone looking at me to be “superior” is an idiot.
The big difference is I don't expect anyone to care if I think they are stupid. I know my approval is not necessary for their lives and I know their approval is not necessary for my life.
I also realize that there are people who based their entire lives on the idea that people have to approve of each other. That is crap. I believe that people have to love each other. Love has to transcend approval.
In the United States approval transcends love.
I can love people I think are stupid. I can love people I think are doing stupid things. I can love people who believe things I think are stupid.
I don't need to approve of everything or anything someone does to love them. I don't need to think anything someone does is “smart” to love them. I don't need to agree with anyone to love them.
If someone is looking at me to “prove” I love them they will be disappointed. I don't expect anyone to prove that I love them and I don't expect to have anyone prove they love me.
When people quit expecting their approval to matter to anyone else this world will be a much better place.
Monday, August 29, 2011
Windows Sucks
I hate Microsoft Windows with a passion. If Al Queda set off a nuclear weapon in Redmond I would clap and cheer along with Muslim terrorists. Okay, maybe not but I really, really hate Microsoft.
A while back I stumbled onto a ridiculous blog about how much Linux sucks written by an idiot. His basic idea was that because things were "easier" with Windows Windows was "better". What an idiot, If everyone thought the same way he does Microsoft wouldn't be losing market share.
My wife has a windows computer and I set up an old windows system to use as a phone server for Magic Jack. Microsoft is tool people who are into computers have to know how to use because most people use microsh*t.
My daughter's boy friend wanted to copy some CD's that a friend had made of their band. I figured I could just install some freeware burning software and he could copy the CD's using my phone server (400mhz, 327meg of ram, XP). Since I have a heart condition and since he is familiar with windows it seemed like it might be a stress free way to handle the situation. Besides, I didn't want him mucking around on my desktop.
Yeah. right.
Ooops, Windows XP does not close audio CD's using the default burning software.
So I hunted around in my old CD's and found an old copy of Nero 9 for Windows. I canceled the install a half an hour in because the install was at 26%.
Look up windows freeware that does CD burning. Install a recommended software and yep, you guessed it. No copy button. No copy function.
About now, an hour into this disaster, I was wishing I had just written a simple script in Linux and let the guy loose on my desktop. I wrote a quick script and I shoved one of the CD's in and copied it on my linux system. Essentially rip an audio CD to a temp file, burn the rip and then delete the temp files. Quick script. Thank God Linux still uses a DOS prompt or if you like the more linux name, bash shell or terminal window.
I downloaded another recommended freeware and installed it. Oops, it won't install without the .Net Framework. Lets install that garbage on my system. Swap out the CD's on my Linux system and start #2 copying.
Okay so now the .Net framework needs something called WIC before it will install. Download and install the WIC. Slap #3 in my Linux desktop and copy #3.
Start the .NET framework install. While I am waiting copy CD's #4, #5 and #6. For a garage band these guys write a lot of music. Way too much to be good at any of it I am sure. Play one of the tracks, yep, I am correct about that. Not awful, but nothing special and the bass loses sync with the drummer. Check the Windows box. Nope, the .NET install is not even halfway. Now I am remembering why I hate Microsoft products.
While I am waiting I might as well write a blog and copy the rest of the CD's since this f*cking piece of microsh*t software.... Wait a second. Time to chill out. Now I get it. I have spent 16 years using microsh*t products at work. No wonder I have a heart problem.
Now lets see, does this fuc*ed-up Windows freeware have DOS commands I can write into a script? No, can't find any. .NET install still at around 50% and when it is done I can't write a script to make my life easier.
What a pain in the A**. How can people even pretend Microsoft is a worthwhile and useful product? The GDP of the United States has been trending downward since 1984. When was Windows released? 1984. How Orwellian is that?
How many companies have had huge losses and gone out of business because Microsoft makes crappy closed source software? Install of .NET still around 50%. Where did I put that baseball bat?
What is even more ridiculous is I know microscrap is crap and I thought this would be a simple and easy solution. I can't believe I made that mistake.
Know how to keep a microsoft computer working? Don't use it. That's right. Don't use it. Just buy the damn thing and turn it on. Then re-boot it once a day. Don't surf the web or write up documents or spread sheets. Don't play games or anything else. Just leave it alone and it works fine. Don't use Windows as a file server. If you use a microcrap box as a file server some idiot will crash your box trying to hack in.
As far as I am concerned Windows sucks. This episode in futility is just another example of micro-crap incompetence. .NET install is still at 50%. I'm done burning copies on my linux box while waiting to install a simple CD copy program on my Windows box.
Time spent 2 hours. Linux is finished. Windows is still installing the CD copy software.
Addendum: I also had to use a special un-install tool from Nero to remove all of their files from when I canceled the install. When all the required installs finished the copy button in the CD recording software didn't work. I kept getting the message "Drive D is in use by another program. Please shut down all other programs." Yeah, shut Windows down. That is what needs to happen.
A while back I stumbled onto a ridiculous blog about how much Linux sucks written by an idiot. His basic idea was that because things were "easier" with Windows Windows was "better". What an idiot, If everyone thought the same way he does Microsoft wouldn't be losing market share.
My wife has a windows computer and I set up an old windows system to use as a phone server for Magic Jack. Microsoft is tool people who are into computers have to know how to use because most people use microsh*t.
My daughter's boy friend wanted to copy some CD's that a friend had made of their band. I figured I could just install some freeware burning software and he could copy the CD's using my phone server (400mhz, 327meg of ram, XP). Since I have a heart condition and since he is familiar with windows it seemed like it might be a stress free way to handle the situation. Besides, I didn't want him mucking around on my desktop.
Yeah. right.
Ooops, Windows XP does not close audio CD's using the default burning software.
So I hunted around in my old CD's and found an old copy of Nero 9 for Windows. I canceled the install a half an hour in because the install was at 26%.
Look up windows freeware that does CD burning. Install a recommended software and yep, you guessed it. No copy button. No copy function.
About now, an hour into this disaster, I was wishing I had just written a simple script in Linux and let the guy loose on my desktop. I wrote a quick script and I shoved one of the CD's in and copied it on my linux system. Essentially rip an audio CD to a temp file, burn the rip and then delete the temp files. Quick script. Thank God Linux still uses a DOS prompt or if you like the more linux name, bash shell or terminal window.
I downloaded another recommended freeware and installed it. Oops, it won't install without the .Net Framework. Lets install that garbage on my system. Swap out the CD's on my Linux system and start #2 copying.
Okay so now the .Net framework needs something called WIC before it will install. Download and install the WIC. Slap #3 in my Linux desktop and copy #3.
Start the .NET framework install. While I am waiting copy CD's #4, #5 and #6. For a garage band these guys write a lot of music. Way too much to be good at any of it I am sure. Play one of the tracks, yep, I am correct about that. Not awful, but nothing special and the bass loses sync with the drummer. Check the Windows box. Nope, the .NET install is not even halfway. Now I am remembering why I hate Microsoft products.
While I am waiting I might as well write a blog and copy the rest of the CD's since this f*cking piece of microsh*t software.... Wait a second. Time to chill out. Now I get it. I have spent 16 years using microsh*t products at work. No wonder I have a heart problem.
Now lets see, does this fuc*ed-up Windows freeware have DOS commands I can write into a script? No, can't find any. .NET install still at around 50% and when it is done I can't write a script to make my life easier.
What a pain in the A**. How can people even pretend Microsoft is a worthwhile and useful product? The GDP of the United States has been trending downward since 1984. When was Windows released? 1984. How Orwellian is that?
How many companies have had huge losses and gone out of business because Microsoft makes crappy closed source software? Install of .NET still around 50%. Where did I put that baseball bat?
What is even more ridiculous is I know microscrap is crap and I thought this would be a simple and easy solution. I can't believe I made that mistake.
Know how to keep a microsoft computer working? Don't use it. That's right. Don't use it. Just buy the damn thing and turn it on. Then re-boot it once a day. Don't surf the web or write up documents or spread sheets. Don't play games or anything else. Just leave it alone and it works fine. Don't use Windows as a file server. If you use a microcrap box as a file server some idiot will crash your box trying to hack in.
As far as I am concerned Windows sucks. This episode in futility is just another example of micro-crap incompetence. .NET install is still at 50%. I'm done burning copies on my linux box while waiting to install a simple CD copy program on my Windows box.
Time spent 2 hours. Linux is finished. Windows is still installing the CD copy software.
Addendum: I also had to use a special un-install tool from Nero to remove all of their files from when I canceled the install. When all the required installs finished the copy button in the CD recording software didn't work. I kept getting the message "Drive D is in use by another program. Please shut down all other programs." Yeah, shut Windows down. That is what needs to happen.
Friday, August 26, 2011
Getting back to the problems with GDP...
A lot of people think “steady growth” is “best”. Not with GDP. If you have steady growth all the time that would be fine. It won't ever happen. At the very least natural disasters will occur that will cause a reduction in GDP. Hurricane Katrina for example.
If we look at the GDP through the 1990's to about 2005 we have an average GDP growth of about 6.5%. Sounds good? Not really. In 2005 the United States experienced a tremendous natural disaster and a sharp decline in GDP growth.
If we look at the straight economic data from BEA.gov Louisiana didn't have a bad year in 2005. State GDP in 2004 was 171 billion and in 2005 the Louisiana state GDP was 197 billion. Great to know that the major urban area in a state can be wiped out and it won't have any influence on the state GDP, in fact, state GDP increased.
Yeah, like I believe that.
Surf into http://www.bea.gov/regional/index.htm
scroll down to “DATA”
Select “Gross Domestic Product by State”
As of August 26 2011, This will take you into a wizard that will display the desired data and allow you to download it in Excel, CVS or PDF format.
You can check the numbers yourself. I imagine the government in its never ending quest to reduce to increase openness in government and spend a lot of money on web design will change this around and make it impossible to follow the links and instructions I have provided. I have found that government agencies like to change rules in such a way that it “improves efficiency” and just by happenstance reduces accessibility until people figure it out and then it is time to change it again.
In my opinion the never ending “improving websites” is just a new millennium way to introduce bureaucratic red tape and cloud the doings of our government.
So we can believe our eyes or the economic data. I don't think we can believe both.
Looking at the drop in national GDP I can relate quite a bit of it to the destruction and rebuilding of Louisiana. If you check out Wikipedia the cost is about 82 billion. If you read http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/85xx/doc8514/08-07-Hurricanes_Letter.pdf
the money spent by the US government as of 2007 was about 95 billion and that does not count the money spent by individuals and state governments. I think we can at least double the amount spent by the US government and still be way below the total cost.
I figure total spending to recover from Katrina will be around a trillion dollars and it will take 15-20 years to spend that. This is just an estimate I make based on my research.
The Oil Spill in the Gulf of Mexico by the Deep Water Horizon, an off-shore oil drilling platform owned and operated by Transocean under a leasing contract by BP.
Sound confusing? Yep, I'll leave it there. If you want you can study the complex business relationships in oil. So we have the South Eastern region of the United States undergoing two major disasters within 5 years.
We can include some other hurricanes, earthquakes, terrorist attacks, and other issues in this but I think people can figure out the problem here.
Suppose the GDP has very stable growth at 6% even and then the occasional national disaster the causes the GDP to drop. Lets imagine that we have one major national disaster which causes a national GDP issue every 10 years. The GDP average has to be less than 6% and depending on the number of times the GDP drops and how far the GDP drops the national economy average growth can even end up being negative.
The biggest problem with GDP in the United States is that since 1985 there have been no years where GDP growth has been over 10%. Between 1970 and 1985 there were 7 times when GDP growth was over 10%.
So what does this mean?
In statistical analysis a normal distribution is a curve. Pour out a bottle of salt or dump a pile of dirt out of a truck and you will get a pile. Take a two dimensional cross section through the center of that pile and you will have the outline of a normal curve.
Here is the kicker. Most people think “normal” is average, the stuff in the middle. That isn't true. “Normal” encompasses the entire curve, from one end to the other. You can't have a middle or average without having a high and a low.
The high is just as important as the low.
Between 1961 and 1985 the low GDP growth was 4.0% and the high was13.0%. Average was 8.7%.
Between 1986 and 2010 the low GDP growth was -1.8%, the high was 7.7%, the average was 5.1%.
The range between the high and the low shrank 1% which indicates a more tightly controlled economy. The standard deviation went from 2.3% to 2.0%.
So what happens if we “stabilize” the economy so that it is tightly controlled with a GDP growth of about 6%?
Eventually a disaster occurs, Katrina, the Deep Water Horizon spill or something else.
When the disaster occurs the economy is influenced and the GDP is reduced.
If only economic disasters occur and growth is otherwise stable the economy must eventually flounder.
In other words, to balance the normal curve you need economic triumphs to occur as well as economic disasters to balance out the curve. Without economic triumphs the disasters eventually destroy the economy.
In a world where unpredictable natural disasters influence the economy in a disastrous way those managing the economy must create economic triumphs which balance the unpredictable disasters.
Sorry, no economic triumphs since 1985. Hasn't happened. Won't happen unless economic management in the United States does something to address the issue.
People think consistency exists. It does, it is called stagnation.
In life you will always have big losses. If there are no big wins to balance the big losses you will ultimately stagnate and die.
If we look at the GDP through the 1990's to about 2005 we have an average GDP growth of about 6.5%. Sounds good? Not really. In 2005 the United States experienced a tremendous natural disaster and a sharp decline in GDP growth.
If we look at the straight economic data from BEA.gov Louisiana didn't have a bad year in 2005. State GDP in 2004 was 171 billion and in 2005 the Louisiana state GDP was 197 billion. Great to know that the major urban area in a state can be wiped out and it won't have any influence on the state GDP, in fact, state GDP increased.
Yeah, like I believe that.
Surf into http://www.bea.gov/regional/index.htm
scroll down to “DATA”
Select “Gross Domestic Product by State”
As of August 26 2011, This will take you into a wizard that will display the desired data and allow you to download it in Excel, CVS or PDF format.
You can check the numbers yourself. I imagine the government in its never ending quest to reduce to increase openness in government and spend a lot of money on web design will change this around and make it impossible to follow the links and instructions I have provided. I have found that government agencies like to change rules in such a way that it “improves efficiency” and just by happenstance reduces accessibility until people figure it out and then it is time to change it again.
In my opinion the never ending “improving websites” is just a new millennium way to introduce bureaucratic red tape and cloud the doings of our government.
So we can believe our eyes or the economic data. I don't think we can believe both.
Looking at the drop in national GDP I can relate quite a bit of it to the destruction and rebuilding of Louisiana. If you check out Wikipedia the cost is about 82 billion. If you read http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/85xx/doc8514/08-07-Hurricanes_Letter.pdf
the money spent by the US government as of 2007 was about 95 billion and that does not count the money spent by individuals and state governments. I think we can at least double the amount spent by the US government and still be way below the total cost.
I figure total spending to recover from Katrina will be around a trillion dollars and it will take 15-20 years to spend that. This is just an estimate I make based on my research.
The Oil Spill in the Gulf of Mexico by the Deep Water Horizon, an off-shore oil drilling platform owned and operated by Transocean under a leasing contract by BP.
Sound confusing? Yep, I'll leave it there. If you want you can study the complex business relationships in oil. So we have the South Eastern region of the United States undergoing two major disasters within 5 years.
We can include some other hurricanes, earthquakes, terrorist attacks, and other issues in this but I think people can figure out the problem here.
Suppose the GDP has very stable growth at 6% even and then the occasional national disaster the causes the GDP to drop. Lets imagine that we have one major national disaster which causes a national GDP issue every 10 years. The GDP average has to be less than 6% and depending on the number of times the GDP drops and how far the GDP drops the national economy average growth can even end up being negative.
The biggest problem with GDP in the United States is that since 1985 there have been no years where GDP growth has been over 10%. Between 1970 and 1985 there were 7 times when GDP growth was over 10%.
So what does this mean?
In statistical analysis a normal distribution is a curve. Pour out a bottle of salt or dump a pile of dirt out of a truck and you will get a pile. Take a two dimensional cross section through the center of that pile and you will have the outline of a normal curve.
Here is the kicker. Most people think “normal” is average, the stuff in the middle. That isn't true. “Normal” encompasses the entire curve, from one end to the other. You can't have a middle or average without having a high and a low.
The high is just as important as the low.
Between 1961 and 1985 the low GDP growth was 4.0% and the high was13.0%. Average was 8.7%.
Between 1986 and 2010 the low GDP growth was -1.8%, the high was 7.7%, the average was 5.1%.
The range between the high and the low shrank 1% which indicates a more tightly controlled economy. The standard deviation went from 2.3% to 2.0%.
So what happens if we “stabilize” the economy so that it is tightly controlled with a GDP growth of about 6%?
Eventually a disaster occurs, Katrina, the Deep Water Horizon spill or something else.
When the disaster occurs the economy is influenced and the GDP is reduced.
If only economic disasters occur and growth is otherwise stable the economy must eventually flounder.
In other words, to balance the normal curve you need economic triumphs to occur as well as economic disasters to balance out the curve. Without economic triumphs the disasters eventually destroy the economy.
In a world where unpredictable natural disasters influence the economy in a disastrous way those managing the economy must create economic triumphs which balance the unpredictable disasters.
Sorry, no economic triumphs since 1985. Hasn't happened. Won't happen unless economic management in the United States does something to address the issue.
People think consistency exists. It does, it is called stagnation.
In life you will always have big losses. If there are no big wins to balance the big losses you will ultimately stagnate and die.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Segregation, ranting once again
Martin Luther King Jr's father put together a gospel choir (with MLK) that performed at the premiere of "Gone with the Wind". The premiere was segregated and one of the women who won an academy award boycotted the premiere because she was not allowed to sit with the other actors. Today, the segregation of that premiere would be almost un-noticed except for MLK's segregated involvement.
A boycott usually results in an immediate news story, an issue of immediate concern. Very few boycotts result in something that is historically meaningful.
Look at the Detroit people Mover. When Detroit wanted to build a comprehensive mass transit system in partnership with the suburbs the suburbs refused to work with Detroit. "White Fright" of a "Black Invasion" caused Michigan to segregate it's largest urban area and primary industrial development.
In a different blog I talked about how industrialization always follows urbanization. Without a primary urban development there can not be a primary industrial development. This blog only mentions that issue in passing. This blog discusses the pure genius behind the People Mover.
Mayor Coleman Young was a segregationist and a realist. While Mayor Young believed that blacks were fully capable of educating themselves and managing the infrastructure of the city without any involvement from white people Mayor Young also knew that without industry the city of Detroit would have budget problems. I think Mayor Young was also a little naive. Mayor Young did not expect the state of Michigan to cut it's own economic throat to spite themselves.
When Mayor Young received federal funding to build a mass transit system in Detroit he tried to work out a plan with the suburbs. That didn't work. Too much "White Fright". Coleman Young sat down and planned out a small mass transit system, segregated from the surrounding suburbs, running around in a circle like a puppy chasing its tail.
For the rest of time, or at last as long as Detroit existed, the People Mover would be a monument of segregation. A lasting reminder that in the 1970's and 1980's the state of Michigan worked very hard to segregate the city of Detroit.
The lack of a mass transit system which incorporates the surrounding suburbs exemplifies the ongoing abomination that is northern segregation.
This is 2011. Detroit is a decaying, segregated city. Unfortunately for the politicians in the State of Michigan, Detroit is a city of people.
The people are not stupid, they are well aware that the condition of the city of Detroit is caused by segregationist politics. Sure, there are bigots who will say something like "they did it to themselves", just as people walking past a lynched black man swinging from a lamp post in 1860's New York City might say the same thing.
People with any kind of empathy or understanding know that
A boycott usually results in an immediate news story, an issue of immediate concern. Very few boycotts result in something that is historically meaningful.
Look at the Detroit people Mover. When Detroit wanted to build a comprehensive mass transit system in partnership with the suburbs the suburbs refused to work with Detroit. "White Fright" of a "Black Invasion" caused Michigan to segregate it's largest urban area and primary industrial development.
In a different blog I talked about how industrialization always follows urbanization. Without a primary urban development there can not be a primary industrial development. This blog only mentions that issue in passing. This blog discusses the pure genius behind the People Mover.
Mayor Coleman Young was a segregationist and a realist. While Mayor Young believed that blacks were fully capable of educating themselves and managing the infrastructure of the city without any involvement from white people Mayor Young also knew that without industry the city of Detroit would have budget problems. I think Mayor Young was also a little naive. Mayor Young did not expect the state of Michigan to cut it's own economic throat to spite themselves.
When Mayor Young received federal funding to build a mass transit system in Detroit he tried to work out a plan with the suburbs. That didn't work. Too much "White Fright". Coleman Young sat down and planned out a small mass transit system, segregated from the surrounding suburbs, running around in a circle like a puppy chasing its tail.
For the rest of time, or at last as long as Detroit existed, the People Mover would be a monument of segregation. A lasting reminder that in the 1970's and 1980's the state of Michigan worked very hard to segregate the city of Detroit.
The lack of a mass transit system which incorporates the surrounding suburbs exemplifies the ongoing abomination that is northern segregation.
This is 2011. Detroit is a decaying, segregated city. Unfortunately for the politicians in the State of Michigan, Detroit is a city of people.
The people are not stupid, they are well aware that the condition of the city of Detroit is caused by segregationist politics. Sure, there are bigots who will say something like "they did it to themselves", just as people walking past a lynched black man swinging from a lamp post in 1860's New York City might say the same thing.
People with any kind of empathy or understanding know that
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